Jaguars @ Steelers Game Preview

Following what Steelers’ fans will hope was a breakout game for the Matt Canada called offense against the Rams, the Steelers host a 5-2 Jaguars team in a game that may tell us a lot about what this Pittsburgh team is about this season.

Signs of improvement for Pittsburgh’s offense? Despite just a 3-point first half for the Steelers against the Rams, the 4th quarter performance from the offense may have been a potential turning point in the season for a unit that has been well below the standard they need to be if they want to compete at the highest level. Going into the Rams game, the offense was the worst redzone offense in the league, but they scored touchdowns on all 3 redzone trips in LA. In the 4th quarter particularly, Kenny Pickett and the rest of the offensive group came alive. However, unless that 4th quarter performance is built on, then the Steelers will struggle to beat a strong Jaguars team, who will be looking to make a deep playoff run this season. Similar to the Steelers’ defense, the Jaguars’ defensive side of the ball has been all about splash plays this season. They lead the NFL in takeaways with 16, and are second only to San Francisco in interceptions, with 9. While the Steelers haven’t been prolific on the attacking side of the ball this season, their ball security has been up there with the best in the league. Pittsburgh is tied for sixth in giveaways per game, having only given the ball away 6 times through 6 games. Despite the Jaguars’ proficiency in picking the ball off, the air is where the Steelers will look to have success, as Jacksonville is 31st in pass defense. Given Pittsburgh’s ranking of 28th in rushing offense, and the fact that Jacksonville ranks 4th in rush defense, Kenny Pickett will likely need to have a big day. With Diontae Johnson back now for the Steelers, the passing offense has a lot of potential to succeed in this game, as it will allow for George Pickens to be one on one more, and with Pickens being one of the best players in the league for contested catches, having him one on one will usually result in success for Pittsburgh. This is the case even against someone like Darious Williams, who has 3 picks already this season. One of the reasons Jacksonville has struggled against the pass this season is their pass rush. Their 1.9 sacks per game is joint-25th in the NFL, and outside of Josh Allen, who is on 7 sacks for the season, the Jaguars struggle to create pressure. While he may occasionally switch sides, Allen is an edge rusher who predominantly lines up against the Left Tackle, and with Dan Moore being back as the Steelers’ starter at said position, Mike Tomlin needs to make sure his offense is always aware of where no. 41 is. They should look to chip and double team him wherever possible. While someone like Travon Walker is also able to make plays, if Pittsburgh can neutralise Allen, Pickett will have a chance to have a big game. The rushing offense for the Steelers is a different story. As mentioned earlier, the Jaguars have had a lot of success against the run this season, and the Steelers have struggled to move the ball on the ground. One positive from the Steelers’ rushing offense is that they have two solid running backs in Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. They need to share the ball between the two, keep them both fresh, keep the Jaguars’ defense honest. Harris needs to get the ball up the middle, he is not a running back that can bounce outside and get you big gains consistently that way. While Harris’ vision is sometimes the issue, he is often asked to take the ball outside too much. Ball security is also key for the running backs and any other ball carrier in this matchup as the Jaguars have forced seven fumbles this season, tied for first in the league. It starts with the passing game, though. If the Steelers show they are a big threat to Jacksonville through the air, which they can be, then the Jaguars will have to respect that and play slightly deeper, which will allow the Steelers to hopefully find some success on the ground.

Neutralising Jacksonville’s offense The Jaguars’ offense hasn’t been the most prolific this season, but they rank top half in the league in passing, rushing, and total offense, as well as top 10 in points per game. Through seven games, they have ten turnovers, ranking them 17th in the league in giveaways per game. Seven of those turnovers have come through fumbling the ball, and with the Steelers being second in the league in fumble recoveries with six, this is where Pittsburgh’s defense will look to have success, as it is splash plays they have thrived off this season. Given Trevor Larwrence has only thrown three picks this year, it is likely the Steelers will find more turnover success through forced fumbles. To go along with this, the Steelers’ secondary struggled yet again against the Rams. Levi Wallace, who has been sub-par this year, had maybe his worst game of the season, as Puka Nacua ran rampant against him and the rest of the secondary. The air is where Jacksonville will feel they can have success, and either Christian Kirk or Calvin Ridley will feel they can have a big game given the Steelers record against wide receivers this season, which is as follows: VS 49ers: Brandon Aiyuk- 8 targets, 8 catches, 129 yards, 2 touchdowns. VS Browns: Amari Cooper- 10 targets, 7 catches, 90 yards. @ Raiders: Davante Adams- 20 targets, 13 catches, 172 yards, 2 touchdowns. @ Texans: Nico Collins- 9 targets, 7 catches, 168 yards, 2 touchdowns. VS Ravens: Zay Flowers- 11 targets, 5 catches, 73 yards. @ Rams: Puka Nacua- 12 targets, 8 catches, 154 yards. While it is unrealistic to expect opposition wide receivers to be kept quiet each week, the production the Steelers have allowed from opposing wide receivers week in week out has not been acceptable. If you took those stats as one player, they would be on course for a 2,227-yard season through 17 games. It is even more frustrating to see these performances from opposing wide receivers when rookie cornerback Joey Porter Jr. sits on the bench and watches most of the time. When given the opportunity, Porter has performed, and while he wouldn’t suddenly become prime Darrelle Revis if he were to be given a starting role, it seems unfair to watch Levi Wallace and Patrick Peterson underperform each week, while Porter continues to have a low snap-cont. While we have been critical of this defense at times, they were superb in the 4th quarter last week, not giving up a point, and making stops when it mattered most. And while it may seem unsustainable to keep relying on splash plays, those plays will likely continue to happen given that players like TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith are on the team. This would also be an excellent game for all-pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick to get his first interception of the year, and in a game against a quarterback who is very secure with the ball, Fitzpatrick is a player you would back more than most to make an outstanding play to fool Trevor Lawrence. Pass rush could be where the Steelers win this game, though. According to NextGenStats, Trevor Lawrence has had the second shortest time to throw this season. Along with this, the Steelers defense has the 4th-highest blitz rate in the NFL this year. Lawrence hasn’t been good against the blitz this season, either. His completion % against the blitz is the worst in the NFL, and his yards per attempt when facing a blitzing defense is ranked 26th. The Steelers have seen success when blitzing this season, ranking 3rd in completion % allowed when blitzing, as well as ranking 6th in yards per attempt allowed when they send the house. A potent pass rush for the Steelers could lead to turnovers and be the difference in a game where both teams go in with a +6 turnover differential, which is tied for second in the NFL.

Final thoughts

The Jaguars are 5-2 for a reason. They are a well-coached team who rightfully have high aspirations. Given the Steelers’ performances this season, a close win seems the only way they come out of this with a 5th win on the year, whereas a comfortable Jaguars win would not necessarily be a surprise. Despite some big losses earlier in the year, a win for Pittsburgh here, and perhaps more importantly a good offensive performance, would really give the fans hope that this team can compete.