Steelers Face Browns On Thursday Night Football In Potential Trap Game

After five wins in a row, the Pittsburgh Steelers are first in their division with an 8-2 record. Their 18-16 win over the Baltimore Ravens gave them a one and a half game lead over their rivals and, on paper, the Steelers should at least maintain that lead after week 12, as Mike Tomlin’s side goes up against a 2-8 team in the Cleveland Browns. But the game isn’t played on paper, and the Browns will be out to embarrass their division rivals in front of the nation on primetime television. Given Pittsburgh’s history of losses to inferior teams, no fan should be marking this off as a win until the game is over and the Steelers have more points on the board.

This matchup has trap game written all over it. The Steelers just had their biggest win of the season against the Ravens, who have the reigning and potentially back-to-back MVP at quarterback. Meanwhile the Browns sit at 2-8 after they lost 35-14 on the road to the New Orleans Saints. But it’s a short week and that always favours the home team so with this game being in Cleveland the Steelers are going to have to be completely prepared despite having less rest than usual.

Why the Steelers should shut down Cleveland’s offense

The Browns have disappointed this year, there is no doubt about that. Before the season many predicted them to go to the playoffs, but that is now a pipedream. A big reason for that has been the lacklustre offense. Quarterback Deshuan Watson was initially the starter but suffered a season-ending injury in week seven against the Cincinnati Bengals. Up to and including that game, the Browns scored 15.6 points per game. Then, Jameis Winston became the starting quarterback and immediately made an impact. Against the Ravens, who were 5-2 at the time, Winston threw for 334 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions in a 29-24 win to get the Browns their second win of the season.

At the time that seemed to bring new life to Cleveland but since then they have scored just twelve points per game, meaning the offense under Winston is averaging 17.7 points per game. It’s better but would still rank 27th in the league over the whole season if that was over the whole season. Winston played well against the Ravens and the Saints but had a rough day out against the Chargers in early November. He had three interceptions and just one touchdown in his only game where he has started and not thrown for three-hundred yards this season. He was also sacked six times in that game and overall has been sacked eleven times in his three starts. The Browns are giving up the most sacks per game this year with 4.6 and Pittsburgh will want to feast on that. The Steelers haven’t had the best season in getting to the quarterback but T.J. Watt coming off the edge is always a danger, and he will be looking to add to his 7.5 sacks this season. With Alex Highsmith out, Nick Herbig will once again be looked upon to make big plays and Preston Smith will also be in the rotation on the edge. They will probably be up against backup left tackle Germain Ifedi after Dawand Jones was injured against the Saints.

Nick Chubb is back after he suffered a season-ending injury against the Steelers last season. Chubb has played four games since returning from injury and so far, has been unable to find the form that made him one of the best running backs in the league, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry this season. As he plays more and more, though, Cleveland’s star running back will feel his confidence increase and given this was the team he suffered his injury against last year, he will have extra motivation. But with his team having the fourth worst rushing offense in the league this year, Chubb might struggle given that Pittsburgh is fourth against the run game, giving up just under 91 yards per game.

The Steelers also have the second-best scoring defense in the league, with the Chargers in first, who held the Browns to ten points. In terms of turnovers, Cleveland ranks middle of the pack, giving the ball away just more than per game, and the Steelers take it away almost as much as anyone in the league, with nineteen takeaways in ten games. The numbers point to the Steelers defense shutting down the Browns offense, but Nick Chubb is good enough of a player to have a big game at any point and Jameis Winston showed against the Ravens that he can turn it on at any point and rip a defense apart. Jerry Jeudy’s 89-yard touchdown against the Saints also showed that. With their season pretty much over, the Browns might pull out some trick plays on offense, so the Steelers are going to need one hundred percent focus on every single play.

Steelers’ struggles on offense

While the Browns are not electric on offense, neither are the Steelers. Before the Ravens game, Russell Wilson’s attack was scoring over thirty points per game but after a no touchdown game against Baltimore it is clear the offense is regressing each week. Under Wilson they have scored 37, 26, 28 and then 18. Last week against the Ravens they were going up against the worst pass defense in the league and Wilson still threw for zero touchdowns and one interception.

The redzone has been a massive issue for the Steelers this season. On the year they score a touchdown on 44.44% of redzone trips. The good news for the Steelers is that the Browns rank twenty-fourth in redzone defense, allowing a touchdown 63.33% of the time teams get inside their twenty-yard line. But Cleveland is middle of the pack when it comes to passing defense and with Pittsburgh ranked twenty-eighth in passing offense, there will be no surprise if Russell Wilson struggles. George Pickens ins fourth in the league in receiving yards so he clearly isn’t the issue. Other receivers on the team need to step up and make plays, a few deep balls to Pickens each game won’t work forever. Pat Freiermuth at tight end has to be used more. The most catches he has in a game this season is five against the Colts and that was the only game he had more than five targets. In fairness though, this may not be the game to use Freiermuth. The main thing the Steelers have to worry about in the pass game is Myles Garrett, the reigning defensive player of the year. Garrett has seven sacks on the year and is part of a defense that ranks eighth in getting to the quarterback. Expect a lot of chips and double teams on Garrett, with tight end Darnell Washington possibly filling in to help out. Garrett might move all over the line of scrimmage to create confusion and mismatches.

The pass game is not where the Steelers try and thrive under Arthur Smith, though. Running the ball and controlling the time of possession is clearly the philosophy of this offense, and for the most part it has worked. With Najee Harris as the number one back, the Steelers have a top ten rushing attack. Jaylen Warren is also a big part of that as the one-two punch the Steelers possess with those two is something they like to use and will look to utilise against a bottom ten rushing defense in the Browns.

If the Steelers can run the ball well, they will likely continue their dominant time of possession. Averaging thirty-two minutes and thirty-seven seconds, Tomlin’s team have the ball the third most out of any team in the league. In addition to the strong run game, another part of that is the lack of turnovers, just eight this season which ranks fourth. Meanwhile, the Browns rank last in takeaways so Arthur Smith will want a clean game from his offense.

Perhaps the most important thing that we haven’t mentioned is that Pittsburgh has the best kicker in the league in Chris Boswell. Dustin Hopkins, the Browns kicker, has had his struggles, missing two field goals against the Saints and six on the year as well as two missed extra points this season.

Conclusion and prediction Inferior opposition won’t change the Steelers' philosophy, especially given it’s an away game on a short week against a division rival. Pittsburgh will run the ball early, try and open up the play action at times, but overall look to control the time of possession. They should be able to do that against a Browns defense that has not been very good against the run this year. Harris and Warren can expect large workloads in this game. Any turnovers will likely be because of silly errors such as the Wilson interception against the Ravens last week. The offense has been bad in the redzone and that needs to change but for now, the Steelers will feel their strong defense can hold the Browns to under seventeen points and force takeaways to get good field position. This will be a low-scoring, close game with the game being decided in the late fourth quarter. Pittsburgh has the better kicker and that will be key. Prediction: Steelers 20-17 Browns