Steelers @ Rams Week 7 Game Preview

Coming off their Week 6 bye, the Steelers head to LA to face the Super Bowl LVI champions in the Rams, who sit at a respectable 3-3.

The Steelers find themselves with a 3-2 record after 5 games, but most realistic fans will know that this is a record that is generous to them. The Steelers had a 26-22 win over the Browns thanks to not one but two defensive touchdowns. This was followed two weeks later by a victory over the Baltimore Ravens in which the Steelers’ fierce rivals dropped five passes, the highest by any team in a game this season, which cost Baltimore at least two touchdowns in a game that ended 17-10 to Pittsburgh. But the fact is your record doesn’t show how many ifs, buts and maybes you have, it shows how many wins and losses you have, and heading into Week 7, the Steelers have more of the former than the latter.

Steelers Offense vs Rams Defense The Steelers’ offense has been nothing short of embarrassing this season. They rank 27th in pass yards per game, 28th in rush yards per game, 30th in total yards per game, and average a measly 15.8 points per game, which is actually 13 points per game if you take off the 14 points that was scored by the defense against the Browns. The talking point of Pittsburgh’s season so far has been offensive coordinator Matt Canada, who fans have continued to show their dislike towards as the season has gone on. While Canada has by no means had a good season, and a whole article could be written on the failures of the Steelers’ offense during his tenure as OC, he is not solely to blame for the offensive struggles. Kenny Pickett, who is now in his 2nd year in the NFL has played well below par this season with just 5 touchdowns to 4 interceptions, along with a completion percentage of below 60 through 5 games. Pickett has also been behind an offensive line that has been towards the bottom of the NFL in performance. What the Rams defenses poses is a solid group, but one that is nowhere near the level of defenses that the Steelers have faced in previous weeks such as the Browns or the 49ers. LA ranks a respectable 13th in total yards per game allowed as well as the same position in pass yards per game allowed, and their defense is also 12th in points per game allowed. Despite their top-half performance in defending the pass though, the Rams have struggled getting to the Quarterback this season, with just 1.7 sacks per game this season, a number that ranks 28th in the NFL. The Steelers offensive line has not performed at a high level this season, but this is a game where they will have a chance to impress, given that the Rams’ rushing defense is also ranked low, at 22nd. Of course, 3x DPOY and future hall of famer Aaron Donald is someone the Steelers will have to deal with, and although he may not be the unanimous best defensive tackle in the league anymore, he is still capable of elite play. Neutralising Donald will be key for the Steelers, or else the rest of the Rams front seven, such as their 3rd round pick Byron Young who leads the team with 3 sacks, will cause the Steelers problems. Young tends to line up against the opposition Left Tackle, and it looks as if Dan Moore Jr., one of the lowest rated LTs this season will be returning for the Steelers, after missing the Ravens game through injury. This is despite 1st round pick Broderick Jones having a very solid game against Baltimore. The Steelers’ run game will be something that they can look to establish against this Rams defense, given LA’s low-ranking rush defense. A good run-game, along with the return of Wide Receiver Diontae Johnson, will allow play action to open up more, which is always good news for any offense. A bad performance from the offense coming off a bye will have many more people calling for the firing of Matt Canada, and the toxicity around the offensive side of the ball will only continue. This is a big game for Canada, Pickett and Mike Tomlin.

Steelers defense vs Rams offense The Steelers’ defense this season has been all about splash plays. They rank 6th in the league in takeaways, with five interceptions and six fumble recoveries (the special teams have also earned a safety). Pittsburgh is 6th in the league in sacks per game, with NFL sack leader TJ Watt on an absurd pace with 8 already. All this goes along with the two touchdowns they scored against the Browns in week 2. But, if we are being completely honest about the Steelers’ defense, they have big weaknesses, and the splash plays from the likes of TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith have hidden that. In total yards per game against, the defense ranks 30th. The unit also ranks 25th in pass yards per game given up, as well as 29th against the run. This would maybe be excusable if they had a strong record in scoring defense, but even in that aspect they are in the bottom half of the league. While it is certainly a valid point to say that the lack of offensive success has had a negative impact on the defense, it also just as invalid to call this defense an elite group from what we have seen so far. Does the group have the potential to be an elite one? With the likes of TJ Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Alex Highsmith, yes it does. However, the performances so far this season have not been of the standard of other elite defenses like the 49ers or the Browns. In their previous match, they would have given up at least 17 more points had it not been for some awful drops and poor decision making from the Ravens. They have also given up 30 points twice already this season. The Steelers secondary has been a big concern all season, with Patrick Peterson and Levi Wallace struggling at cornerback, despite the 3 picks between the two. The Steelers’ 2023 first round pick Joey Porter Jr. has impressed in the few snaps he has got this season, including a big interception against the Ravens while guarding Odell Beckham Jr. To many fans’ frustration though, defensive coordinator Teryl Austin is reluctant to start the rookie despite the secondary’s poor play this season. The reason the secondary is such a worry this week is because the Rams possess the 6th best passing offense in terms of yards per game this season and have two receivers that have already had huge games this season. Rookie Puka Nacua started the season on a historical pace, and already has three games with over 100 yards, two with over 145 yards, and has totalled 598 yards so far this year. Nacua has slowed down in the past two games, but is still certainly a threat, despite his two least productive games yard wise coming in the last two weeks. Nacua’s slight dip in production is mainly because of the return of Super Bowl LVI MVP and 2021 triple-crown winner Cooper Kupp, who missed the Rams’ first four games of the season. Kupp has returned straight to WR1 form though, with 118 yards against the Eagles, and then 148 yards, along with a touchdown, against the Cardinals in the Rams week 6 win. The Steelers’ defense will need to limit Kupp and Nacua if they want to slow down the Rams’ passing offense, and one thing they might do is move All-Pro Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick slightly deeper. Fitzpatrick has been playing within the box a lot more this season. Per @Alex_Kozora on X (formerly Twitter), the Steelers’ star safety has a box rate, meaning being within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage, of over 20% this season compared to just over 8% last season. Fitzpatrick has 0 interceptions so far this season, and his box rate is certainly a factor in that. If his high box rate continues, then the secondary will likely struggle against such a potent aerial attack. The Steelers’ pass rush will also fancy their chances going up against a Rams’ offensive line that has given up 2.7 sacks per game, ranked 20th in the NFL. If the Steelers are going to disrupt the Rams’ passing offense, TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith will have to perform well, otherwise it could be a big day for Kupp and/or Nacua. While the Steelers’ rushing defense has been bad this year, the Rams’ rushing offense ranks in the bottom half of the league, so it is likely LA will look to find most of their success on offense through the air.

Final thoughts Given the Steelers’ offensive struggles since 2021 when Matt Canada was appointed OC, it is hard to see how a bye will change much. The offense will have Johnson back, but Tight End Pat Freiermuth will miss the game through injury, so it would be no surprise to see the offense be lacklustre yet again, especially against a Rams’ defense that is ranked top half in the league on most areas. The defense has come up against two top 10 offenses in yards per game this season (Houston and San Francisco) and given up 30 points each time. With the Rams being in that category as well, it is very possible that that number is hit again by the Steelers’ opponent. With this all being said, the Steelers possess lots of talent on both sides of the ball, and with Mike Tomlin at the helm you can never say they will be blown out, although it is of course a possibility given some of the results this season. Our final prediction for this one is 27-20 Rams.