The Steelers host the Chargers in their home opener

The Pittsburgh Steelers will play their first home game of the season on Sunday, September 22nd, against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Steelers are off to a 2-0 start, as are the Chargers, who defeated the Las Vegas Raiders in week 1 and the Carolina Panthers in week 2. The Steelers had a big week 1 win over the Falcons, and then in week 2 defeated the Denver Broncos in a game many expected them to win. This week’s game will be a test for Pittsburgh to see where they really are as a team, as many predict the Chargers to go to the playoffs this year.

New-Look LA: The Chargers are under a new head coach this season. Jim Harbaugh, who won the 2024 national championship with Michigan, is back in the NFL as LA’s new head coach after last coaching in the league in 2015. Under Harbaugh, the Chargers have a new offensive identity, run the football. That was almost always going to be the case when they hired Greg Roman as their offensive coordinator back in February. Roman was the OC for the Ravens between 2019-2022 and oversaw the 1st,1st, 3rd, and 2nd best rushing offenses in the league over those four years. He was also OC for Lamar Jackson’s first MVP season. Roman’s new offense is already paying dividends. In 2023, LA was 25th in rushing, with just 96.6 yards per game. Although we are only two weeks into the 2024 season, Harbaugh’s team averaging 197.5 rushing yards per game seems like enough of a gap to show that the philosophy change has been successful in LA. In their 26-3 win against Carolina, LA ran the ball forty-four times, averaging five yards per rushing attempt. This is a team that clearly wants to wear out their opponent. JK Dobbins seems to have revived his young career under Harbaugh, running for over 130 yards in each of the first two games, averaging 9.9 yards per carry on the season heading into week 3. Part of the reason for Dobbins’ revival may be because he was drafted in 2020 by the Ravens, when Roman was the OC in Baltimore. Since Justin Herbert was drafted, also in 2020, it has seemed that the whole weight of the Chargers team has fallen on him. The Chargers have had a bottom-half rushing offense ever since he was drafted but now, with this new run-heavy offense, the reliance on Herbert drops. Of course, he will still have a chance to make those highlight reel type plays, but with this new offense, he won’t need to as much. On the defensive side of the ball, the Chargers have brought in Jesse Minter as their defensive coordinator, who worked with Harbaugh for the past two years at Michigan. Minter is off to a strong start as the Chargers have given up just 13 points in two games, the least in the league, and also have the second-best total defense after two weeks. Of course, two weeks is a small sample size, but this group seems to have improved from where they were last year with Derrick Ansley as their DC when they finished 24th in scoring defense and 28th in total defense.

Similar stories: If the philosophy they have in LA sounds familiar, that’s because it is. The Steelers still have Mike Tomlin as head coach, of course, and Teryl Austin is in his third year as DC with the team, but Arthur Smith is the new OC, and he wants to run the ball. After every team in the league had played two games, the Steelers had run the ball more than any other team with 77 rushing attempts in total. The Steelers haven’t been as effective as LA in running the ball, though, averaging just 3.6 yards per attempt. But, out of the two teams, the Steelers probably possess the stronger of the defenses and certainly hold a stronger defense than what the Chargers have faced so far this season. Second only to Harbaugh’s team in scoring defense, the Steelers have given up just eight points per game in the first two games. Along with that, Austin’s group are tied for the second most forced turnovers with five. Run the ball well and play strong defense is the philosophy of both of these teams. The difference is, the Chargers have the advantage at quarterback. Justin Herbert may not have the wins over his career so far to reflect his elite talent but anyone who has watched him since he entered the league knows that he is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. So, given that they run the ball slightly better and have the better quarterback, it isn’t much of a surprise that the Chargers have outscored the Steelers this season. Having said this, the Steelers are one of two teams in the league this season yet to turn the ball over. Their mantra has been play strong defense, and play conservative, smart offense, even if it means the games will be low scoring. So far it has worked and given that LA turned over the ball twice against a weak Carolina team, Pittsburgh will feel they can force mistakes from the Chargers offense.

Key matchups: There are some key matchups which will decide where this game is won and lost. The first of those is between Joe Alt, LA’s rookie right tackle, and TJ Watt. Alt has had a sensational start to his NFL career. He was thrown right in the deep end on his debut, going up against Maxx Crosby and holding his own with plenty of one-on-one snaps. If Alt can dominate again and shut down Watt then the Steelers are going to have a very tough time stopping the run, and once the run game gets going, Herbert can be unleashed at any moment, and then the Steelers will have two big problems to deal with. The Chargers have some key edge rushers of their own. Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa are both still two of the best edge defenders around and against Pittsburgh they will have a big chance to impact the game after the recent Steelers offensive line news. Rookie tackle Troy Fautanu has been placed on injured reserve after he suffered a knee injury in practice. That means that second year tackle Broderick Jones will likely start at right tackle, going up against Bosa and Mack. Jones didn’t start in week 2 but was in the game for 11 snaps, drawing 3 penalties, one of which was a holding call which brought back a 50+ yard play from Fields to Pickens. The Steelers will be looking to run the ball between the tackles more often than not but given the superiority of the Chargers to last week’s opponent, Fields will have to make plays in the passing game at some point. So, at some point Jones will be tested and if he can’t hold up, the Steelers will struggle.

Prediction: Both teams have started 2-0, but the Chargers have done it more convincingly. Their wins may have been against inferior opponents, but LA’s plan to run the ball has worked better than Pittsburgh’s, and there is no denying that Herbert is the better quarterback. Pittsburgh does possess the better defense, but the Steelers strengths lie in Watt and Highsmith off the edge which could very quickly be neutralised by either LA’s strong run game, or their elite tackle duo in Alt and Rashawn Slater. Along with this, Fautanu’s injury is a massive loss for the Steelers, and it gives Bosa and Mack a real chance to wreck this game. Our prediction for this one is once again a low-scoring game, LA 20-13 Pittsburgh.