The Steelers Won Their Week 5 Bye - But Let's Not Get Carried Away

Week five could not have gone much better for the Pittsburgh Steelers. In London, the Cleveland Browns fell to the Minnesota Vikings, who the Steelers defeated in Dublin in week 4, after a late Jordan Addison touchdown. Later, in the early slate of games, the injury-ridden Baltimore Ravens fell to 1-4 following a humiliating 44-10 defeat to the Houston Texans. Then, the least surprising result of the day came in the late set of games as the Cincinnati Bengals were defeated 37-24 by the Detroit Lions.

Those score-lines mean that in the last two weeks the AFC North is 1-6. The one win? Pittsburgh's victory over Minnesota in the Irish capital. Mike Tomlin's team sit pretty atop their division with a 3-1 record, with the Bengals at 2-3 in 2nd place, while the Browns and Ravens both lie in the bottom of the division's standings with a 1-4 record apiece. Coming into the season, Pittsburgh and their fans would have taken this position all day long as they prepare to face the Cleveland Browns in week six, but fans must not get ahead of themselves.

The Steelers have a real chance to move to 4-1. They face a Browns team travelling back from London, with a rookie quarterback in Dillon Gabriel, and given Tomlin's impressive 26-6 record against first-year signal callers, there is good reason to believe he will coach his team to a fourth win of the season, despite the Browns' defensive unit potentially providing problems for Pittsburgh's offense. Looking at the rest of the division, the Bengals will not contend without Burrow, and Baltimore will almost certainly fall to 1-5 as they face a red hot Matthew Stafford and an angry Los Angeles Rams team, who will be looking to bounce back after a tough Thursday Night Football loss.

So, what's the problem? Let's skip week six and say the Steelers are 4-1 and the Ravens are 1-5 for arguments sake. In week seven the Ravens have a bye. If Baltimore can get healthy, there is no reason to believe that they can't go on a run. The tough part of the schedule is out of the way for John Harbaugh's team. They have already faced the Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills, three teams who could very well be competing on Championship Sunday, whereas the Steelers still have to play the Lions and the Bills. In fact, Pittsburgh's schedule as a whole looks tough for the rest of the year. Gauntlet might be too strong a word, but it's not far off it.

Pittsburgh still has all six divisional games to play and, while the AFC North is clearly weaker this year than in previous seasons, let's not pretend there will be any easy wins. The Ravens' loss on the road to the Browns last season proves that. Even this week against the Browns, there is no guarantee of a win at home. Along with that, Pittsburgh will not be playing this injured Ravens team. Barring more injuries, Lamar Jackson and a much healthier defense will take on Aaron Rodgers and his crew in weeks 14 and 18. While Jackson had struggled in the past against the Steelers, those days seem to be behind him after he put up a three touchdown performance with the AFC North on the line in week 16 of 2024, and a 256-yard, two touchdown performance in the Wildcard round.

Outside of the AFC North, the Steelers' seven other opponents have a combined record of 20-12-1, compared with the 6-9 record of the teams Pittsburgh has defeated in their first four games. The Ravens' schedule, however, eases up massively after their bye. Outside of divisional opponents, the rest of Baltimore's opponents for the 2025 season combine for a record of 11-15-1. Of course, the logic applied to the difficulty of AFC North games used against the Steelers can also be used against the Ravens. This piece is not to guarantee a Steelers collapse and a third straight division title for Baltimore, but it would be silly to think Harbaugh's team is out of the race.

Lamar Jackson has won over 70% of his regular season games. In the Ravens' humiliation against the Texans, they were without their star quarterback, along with three cornerstone pieces of their defense in Marlon Humphrey, Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton, all of whom were All-Pro players in 2024. There is no denying that the showing against the Texans was embarrassing for Harbaugh and his players, in a game where at times they looked like they lacked effort. However, after the bye, they come up against the Chicago Bears in a very winnable game given Jackson should be healthy by then. A win at home will have fans and players believing their MVP quarterback can take them on a run, and will also pile the pressure on the Steelers, who will be preparing to host the Green Bay Packers that night on Sunday Night Football, a very difficult fixture.

Pittsburgh has to get to 5-1 against the Browns and the Bengals over the next two weeks. The Ravens are a superior team when healthy, so the Steelers need as much of a lead in the division as possible for when their rivals get their stars back. Mike Tomlin's team can of course capitalise on the rest of the division's failure, but even a 5-1 start with the lacklustre Browns and Bengals coming up is not a guarantee. In 2023, the Steelers were 7-4 before they were embarrassed at home by the two-win Arizona Cardinals, then humiliated again at home against the two-win New England Patriots. That is enough evidence to show that Tomlin's team is susceptible to bad losses. They are also susceptible to late season collapses. In 2024, a 10-3 team lost four in a row to end the season 10-7 before being brushed aside in the Wildcard Round by the Ravens.

This piece is not to say that the Steelers won't win the AFC North this year. It will be either them or the Ravens, and if the latter does it then they will be the first team ever to win the AFC North three times in a row. Mike Tomlin's men have a real chance to host a playoff game, there is no denying that. However, until Pittsburgh's players are wearing their hats and t-shirts in the locker room for the first time since the 2020 season, there is no guarantee of a division title in the Steel City, because this team has been in stronger positions before and blown it.